Nov. 25, 2026 | 12 – 1 PM CEST
The Horizon Europe project PRISMA is pleased to invite you to the next PRISMA Webinar, on Wednesday, Nov 25, 2026, 12 – 1 pm CEST, that will explore the EU’s bumpy road to net-zero.
Title:
“The EU’s bumpy road to net-zero: Assessing impacts of EU’s climate policy rollback”
Abstract:
Climate neutrality by 2050 remains the European Union’s legal commitment, but the discussion around how to reach it is increasingly shaped by concerns over affordability, industrial competitiveness and geopolitical resilience. That shift is already visible in policy, through the international credits admitted into the 2040 target and the proposed weakening of the Emissions Trading System cap trajectory. During the webinar, we will examine how a loss of climate policy momentum would play out in practice, using an ensemble of six integrated assessment models. Rather than treating rollback as a simple postponement, we compare five scenarios, spanning sustained ambition, a decade-long rollback, a restoration of ambition after 2035, continued support for low-regret technologies under weakened policy, and a rollback under higher technology and financing costs. We show that deep decarbonisation is achievable but demanding, and that a decade of rollback leaves around 670 Mt CO2 per year still emitted in 2050 without reaching net zero within the horizon. The emissions gap, initially concentrated in power and industry, shifts increasingly toward transport and bunkers, where infrastructure turnover takes longest. Restoring ambition recovers much of the lost ground, but only through a sharper carbon price signal and a more concentrated investment effort after 2035. We close on energy security, made especially salient by recent geopolitical developments. Sustained ambition steadily reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels, whereas rollback preserves that dependence, with oil the most persistent vulnerability.
The webinar will conclude with a 15-minute question and answer (Q&A) session.
Speakers:
Panagiotis Fragkos and Christos Koumparakis, E3Modelling
Register in advance:
https://cmcc-it.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_dKcqLZyNTqW6qggm3EZVjg#/registration
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101081604 – PRISMA. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.