How much cobalt, lithium, and neodymium will be needed to reach ambitious climate goals? Will there be enough of those materials? And how can Europe secure its supply?

Such questions are gaining more and more attention from policy, industry, and research. As it has become clear that a phase-out of fossil fuels and a transition towards renewable energy technologies will entail an increasing demand for so-called Critical Raw Materials (CRM) – minerals and metals, which are used in batteries, photovoltaic panels, electric motors, and many other key technologies needed to reduce global warming. Even if CRM are often used in tiny quantities, they are critical for our industrial system and cannot be easily replaced. Today, the extraction and refining of those CRM is often concentrated in a few countries, with China playing a central role.

The World Resources Forum 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland, provided a platform to present the first outputs of PSI’s research in the context of critical raw materials, digitalization, and the energy transition. Alvaro Hahn, PhD student in PSI’s Technology Assessment group, presented the results of the quantification of Swiss CRM demands in scenario projections reaching the national net-zero greenhouse gas emission goal by 2050 ¹ , ² . He showed that the demand for selected CRMs will substantially increase: while, for example, copper demand is expected to increase relatively moderately by 50%, demand for lithium shows a sharp increase of 700%. Electrification of mobility and industrial processes, substitution of thermal power plants with PV panels and wind turbines, and infrastructure needed for energy storage and the power grid, as well as hydrogen production and transport, turn out to be among the driving factors behind these results. Despite the fact that such projections come along with substantial uncertainties, as it is currently hard to tell which, for example, battery and PV technologies will dominate the markets in decades from now, the projections indicate an increasing urgency to take action to secure future European CRM supply. Securing CRM supply can only be achieved through a portfolio of measures, including establishing European mining and refining capacities, diversifying international CRM supply chains, increasing recycling activities, and implementing other circular economy strategies.

These outcomes are a result of an integration of environmental Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM), which is among the core objectives of PSI’s contributions to the PRISMA project. The application of this integration to Switzerland’s energy transition represents only the first step; together with the IAM teams at PIK, PBl, IIASA, and CMCC, the scope will be expanded to quantify CRM demand on the global level based on a broad range of IAM projections. Also, further environmental co-benefits and potential trade-offs of transition pathways towards net-zero will be investigated.

Beyond Alvaro Hahn’s contribution, the World Resources Forum 2025 covered topics such as deep-sea mining and associated technical, environmental, and legal challenges, CRM demand of sustainable aviation, the entire ethical and social dimension of CRM supply chains, and deep dives into CRM demand of specific technologies. As such, the forum represents a dedicated platform for a dialogue between authorities, policy makers, industry, and research, and can be recommended to attend.

1. Hahn Menacho, A. J., Sacchi, R., Bauer, C., Moretti, C., Panos, E., McKenna, R., Burgherr, P. (2025). The
   global environmental footprint of Switzerland’s net-zero energy system uncovers impacts abroad.
   Communications Earth & Environment. doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02220-5 ↩︎
2. Hahn Menacho, A. J., Sacchi, R., Bauer, C., Panos, E., McKenna, R., Burgherr, P. (2025). The material-energy
   nexus in net-zero transition scenarios: exploring environmental trade-offs and uncertainties. Resources,
   Conservation and Recycling. doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108251 ↩︎

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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101081604 – PRISMA. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

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