Jarusch Müßel , Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany
Looking beyond electrification as the only means to achieve deep decarbonization in transport would bring substantial health and societal gains. A new study led by PIK researchers shows that changing mobility behavior – such as shifting to shared and active modes – can not only deliver immediate and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but also, and in particular, in harmful transport-related externalities.
The study uses the integrated model REMIND-EdgeTransport to compare the climate mitigation potential and co-benefits of three major transport transformation strategies: lifestyle changes (LSCs), electrification, and efficiency improvements. The results show that electrification delivers by far the largest long-term CO₂ reductions (Figure 1). However, LSCs stand out for their broad societal benefits, particularly in reducing health-related externalities. They also enable short-term climate mitigation and effectively cut emissions in hard-to-electrify transport sectors.
Figure 1: Fossil emissions for passenger and freight transport in Europe
Scenario- and mode-specific fossil emissions and relative reductions to the reference year, 2020. Road, rail, navigation, and domestic aviation emissions are included, while those from bunker modes (international aviation and shipping) are excluded. Scenario bars from left to right: Reference (REF), Lifestyle Change (LSC), Electrification (ELEC), Efficiency and technological development (EFF), All demand-side scenarios combined (ALL).
For the EU, LSCs could deliver annual net benefits of €70 billion by 2050 compared to a reference case, reducing the negative externalities of motorized transport by 30% and increasing the positive externalities of active mobility by 50%. These gains stem largely from improved public health through more walking and cycling, as well as fewer accidents, less congestion, and cleaner air (Figure 2).
Figure 2: External costs and benefits of transport
The upper plot shows the external effects of transport in 2020, while the lower plot shows the difference of the 2050 situation in the five scenarios (Reference (REF), Lifestyle Change (LSC), Electrification (ELEC), Efficiency and technological development (EFF), all demand-side scenarios combined (ALL)) compared to 2020. The economic impact is calculated in billions of EUR2020/yr. The impact categories comprise health benefits from active mobility, traffic accidents, congestion, air pollution, climate change, noise, habitat damage, and well-to-tank environmental impacts. The transport modes included in this assessment are walking and cycling, passenger cars, busses, trains, and airplanes (domestic and international), as well as freight trucks (light and heavy), trains, and domestic ships.
The authors call for integrated policy packages that both accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and actively promote shifts in mobility behavior. Such an approach, they argue, will maximize climate benefits while capturing major co-benefits for public health, urban livability, and economic well-being.
Reference:
J. Muessel, R. Pietzcker, J. Hoppe, P. Verpoort, D. Klein, G. Luderer (2025). An integrated modeling perspective on climate change mitigation and co-benefits in the transport sector. Environ. Res. Lett., 20, 094011. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adf23f
Photo credit: Tridsanu Thophet via Canva
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101081604 – PRISMA. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.