Conall Heussaff, Bruegel
In her mission letters to Teresa Ribera, Executive Vice-President for Clean, Just and Competitive Transition, and Wopke Hoekstra, Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, President von der Leyen emphasised the goal of enshrining a 90% emissions reduction target for 2040 into European law. This ambitious target builds on analysis from the Commission’s climate and energy services in February 2024 and aligns with recommendations from the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change.
PRISMA partners, drawing from stakeholder engagement activities, published a policy brief (see Heussaff et al (2024) on the Bruegel website in October 2024. The brief reviewed Europe’s decarbonization progress, categorized risks to achieving the 2040 target, and offered strategies to address them. It highlighted reasons for optimism: emissions in 2022 were 32.5% lower than 1990 levels, the power sector is rapidly decarbonizing, and clean technologies in transport and heating are becoming more affordable. (Figure 1).
Source: Heussaff et al (2024)
Nevertheless, there are substantial risks to be managed. Geoeconomic instability could affect access to clean technologies or raise inflation, while key technologies may not become cost-efficient in time. Decarbonisation will create winners and losers, potentially exacerbating inequality. Pressure to unwind climate policy will test policymakers’ resolve, even when doing so will harm both ongoing and future green investments. To manage these challenges, we recommended a risk monitoring and resilience approach to policymaking that would track key risk factors for the green transition and have prepared policy responses in case said risks materialise.
To read the full policy brief, see Heussaff, C., J. Emmerling, G. Luderer, R. Pietzcker, S. Reissl, R. Rodrigues and R. Way (2024) ‘Europe’s 2040 climate target: four critical risks and how to manage them’, Policy Brief 23/2024, Bruegel, available at https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/europes-2040-climate-target-four-critical-risks-and-how-manage-them
This news is part of a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme under grant agreement No 101081604 – PRISMA.
Views and opinions expressed are however those of the speaker(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA). Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.